Capitals Guest Writer: What's Next for the Caps? - by Ben Case

Darcy Regier overvalues his players, especially his core players. If the Capitals are going to make a play at Ryan Miller they are going to have to come strong like the Wild did with Pominville.

Good read and interesting trade scenario. Seems to be fair to both teams, but I wonder how reluctant Green would be to waive his NTC?

Thanks for the comment. Pominville went for a Johan Larsson, Matt Hackett, 1st round and 2nd round pick. It is important to note that Minnesota was also trying to bring a key piece in for a last minute playoff push, thus increasing his value even more and also complementing the fact that Minnesota would be willing to give up so much youth. However, while he does value his players, he has a lot of future goaltenders in the organization which would hurt Miller's value. Also, Miller taking the starting job would mean another year of Enroth not improving, as actual game experience is huge for goaltender development. The time to ask for an overpriced trade is passing quickly, and honestly probably ended before the Draft and/or beginning of Free Agency. In addition, Buffalo will not retain Miller come this off-season meaning that now that he is in the last year of his contract his value has also decreased. For Buffalo, is it better to at least get good additions for Miller or jack the price so high that you get nothing and lose him to UFA in a year? What would you consider the asking price to be?

@Tourns: Thanks for the comment, I appreciate it. I think if the Caps made it clear that he wouldn't be resigned in two years, he would probably be willing to make a move. Especially with witnessing how rebuilding has benefited Pittsburgh and Edmonton. The future for Buffalo is very bright, its just a question of when. Given that he is from Calgary, he shouldn't have a problem with the cold hopefully!

Capitals Guest Writer: What's Next for the Caps? - by Ben Case
- Eklund

How is Fehr viewed in Washington? I would love to see a trade centered around him and Hemsky.
Thoughts?

What a great read! I don't know if I completely agree with your views on the current defense setup, but I definitely see where you are coming from. I'd love to see you post some more articles.

Agreed with everyone, this was a fantastic read. And excellent trade scenario that you proposed.

@Abware: Hemsky is one of my favorite guys on Edmonton particularly for his great abilities to snipe. However, his declining statistics and previous injury history would be my concern if I were in management. In addition, I believe that given he is in his last year, most GM's would want to see how his body holds in a full season, as well as where his playing level currently is at. At 30, he still has a lot of good years ahead of him for a team that needs a player with the potential to put up +70 points in a season (refer to 05-06). 2005-06 was also the only full season currently in his entire NHL career and he was 23. I have read a lot about trying to find a place to move Hemsky, however, unfortunately I think he is not going to be touched until the trade deadline when a team needs an offensive upgrade.

In regards to Fehr, he is a great price, age and potential for a third line player. He has the flashes of showing that he could be a reliable second liner, but isn't quite consistent enough yet. I have read articles indicating the the center position in Edmonton is one in most question. He would more than fill that void, especially because he is a great two-way power forward at 6'4. I think to get him, Edmonton would have to offer something offensive and young.

Personally, I love Edmonton's entire team (favorite NHL '13 team too), the one issue is your goaltender; I believe prevents you from being a cup contending team this year. I think your more suitable partner for Hemsky would actually be Buffalo. What would you think about Dubnyk, Hemsky and one of your top D picks and/maybe a 1st? Edmonton could afford to miss a first round pick, Dubnyk is good and has good potential but is more than expendable (LaBarbera is a great career backup and Bachman could develop really nicely with a full AHL season despite his NHL experience in Dallas.) Hemsky is on the block, so always great to move him and his salary.

@Abware: Hemsky is one of my favorite guys on Edmonton particularly for his great abilities to snipe. However, his declining statistics and previous injury history would be my concern if I were in management. In addition, I believe that given he is in his last year, most GM's would want to see how his body holds in a full season, as well as where his playing level currently is at. At 30, he still has a lot of good years ahead of him for a team that needs a player with the potential to put up +70 points in a season (refer to 05-06). 2005-06 was also the only full season currently in his entire NHL career and he was 23. I have read a lot about trying to find a place to move Hemsky, however, unfortunately I think he is not going to be touched until the trade deadline when a team needs an offensive upgrade.

In regards to Fehr, he is a great price, age and potential for a third line player. He has the flashes of showing that he could be a reliable second liner, but isn't quite consistent enough yet. I have read articles indicating the the center position in Edmonton is one in most question. He would more than fill that void, especially because he is a great two-way power forward at 6'4. I think to get him, Edmonton would have to offer something offensive and young.

Personally, I love Edmonton's entire team (favorite NHL '13 team too), the one issue is your goaltender; I believe prevents you from being a cup contending team this year. I think your more suitable partner for Hemsky would actually be Buffalo. What would you think about Dubnyk, Hemsky and one of your top D picks and/maybe a 1st? Edmonton could afford to miss a first round pick, Dubnyk is good and has good potential but is more than expendable (LaBarbera is a great career backup and Bachman could develop really nicely with a full AHL season despite his NHL experience in Dallas.) Hemsky is on the block, so always great to move him and his salary.
- Bcase30

For what?
Honestly I don't want Miller and his attitude. A fresh start would probably be good for him, but the oilers have made every effort to remove poor attitudes from the team. I am aware a lot of it is due to frustrations, but he is also on a downward trend, although still a great goalie.

I also think Hemsky could flourish (if he can stay healthy) with OV. Although most players in the NHL should flourish playing with him.
Hemsky is a great setup man and I think OV could also benefit from him on his other wing. That and I would love Fehr on the Oilers third line.

Really enjoyed your article and your strategy. Thoughtful and interesting. Keep more blogs coming!

Good read, but i dont like the trade at all

Miller would be a good answer for WSH

BUT

Buffalo has enroth ready for a chance to be a starter and matt hackett who will be their backup once miller has been sent away. Holtby would become more of a log jam. Also, sabres have 8-10 defenceman fighting for 6-7 spots, green causes more issues even tho he has talent. I think your looking at something more along the lines of

Neuvirth/holtby shipped out for X return

Miller for WSH 1st, chimera or laich or fehr, forward prospect

Thanks for sharing your thoughts - very interesting.

@Abware- Always great to get true fans perspective on a trade to their team; especially because my perspective is from an outside looking in POV. I can definitely understand the sentiment against bringing him and his attitude along.

As for Hemsky with Ovie...I agree with how it would definitely benefit him. It would put a natural scoring threat in great position to free up space for Ovechkin while allowing Backstrom two sniper options.

Dependent on Hemsky's first half performance, as well as Grabovski's, I could down the road see a potential deal. However, Hemsky's salary is the most complicating part to to finding a deal. Honestly, I would believe he could be a great free agent candidate if Grabovski doesn't pan out and Edmonton can't secure a new deal.

Great read... for the most part. Plans for long term success (especially with young teams such as the caps) will always out weight those for the short term. Caps in recent years have been burned by the "quick fix" (Tomas Vokoun comes to mind right away) and don't think Miller is the missing piece of the cup puzzle. While Miller has been great he is currently 10 years older than Holtby who has also proven to be a reliable starter in the NHL. In my opinion it comes down to why pay a heavier price for Miller who is on his way out when there is such a bright future in front of Holtby. Ill agree that a shooter tutor may have been better for the caps in game 7 this spring. but don't think that should dictate a career. Let's be real, I'm sure there were a few games you'd prefer to forget about as well! With that said I really enjoyed the article and was just trying to stir the pot, look forward to reading more from you.

@ARTEM791:

I appreciate the comment and also the candidness in your counter trade proposal, "Neuvirth/holtby shipped out for X return. Miller for WSH 1st, chimera or laich or fehr, forward prospect." There are pros and cons to the signing of Grabovski, unfortunately, a con is now the current lack in cap space. I would have definitely 100% agreed with this trade pre-Grabovski signing. Your proposal was one of my first thoughts as well as I brewed this trade over in my mind throughout the summer and watching free agency. It would probably have to be closer to the lines of Brouwer because he ranges as a $3 mil hit. With around $2.5 mil free currently and Miller’s just above $6 million hit, they would still have to make a few moves.

Seeing you’re a Aves fan and your assessment of Neuvirth or Holtby being sent out, I love to reference Varlamov. In fact, I was contemplating writing instead about if this goaltending tandem has reached the same point as it did after the 2010-2011 season when in fact Varlamov was sent to Colorado for a 1st and 2nd draft pick. If the Caps could use this as precedence for the value of either one, I would welcome that option. I would prefer a forward prospect and a 2nd however. You are spot on about if Buffalo wouldn’t want either of them that it would be a necessary move for the Caps depth chart, as well as salary cap. In addition, this would give them the flexibility to wait out other pending RFA negotiations to get help for precedent for Johansson, refer to Garth’s article: http://www.hockeybuzz.com...No-Long-Term-Deal/6/53517.

@ARTEM791:

I appreciate the comment and also the candidness in your counter trade proposal, "Neuvirth/holtby shipped out for X return. Miller for WSH 1st, chimera or laich or fehr, forward prospect." There are pros and cons to the signing of Grabovski, unfortunately, a con is now the current lack in cap space. I would have definitely 100% agreed with this trade pre-Grabovski signing. Your proposal was one of my first thoughts as well as I brewed this trade over in my mind throughout the summer and watching free agency. It would probably have to be closer to the lines of Brouwer because he ranges as a $3 mil hit. With around $2.5 mil free currently and Miller’s just above $6 million hit, they would still have to make a few moves.

Seeing you’re a Aves fan and your assessment of Neuvirth or Holtby being sent out, I love to reference Varlamov. In fact, I was contemplating writing instead about if this goaltending tandem has reached the same point as it did after the 2010-2011 season when in fact Varlamov was sent to Colorado for a 1st and 2nd draft pick. If the Caps could use this as precedence for the value of either one, I would welcome that option. I would prefer a forward prospect and a 2nd however. You are spot on about if Buffalo wouldn’t want either of them that it would be a necessary move for the Caps depth chart, as well as salary cap. In addition, this would give them the flexibility to wait out other pending RFA negotiations to get help for precedent for Johansson, refer to Garth’s article: http://www.hockeybuzz.com...No-Long-Term-Deal/6/53517.
- Bcase30

Cap is alway going to be the issue, at quick glance, they have some space, so either laich or brouwer would have to be in there. Ward also could be, but i dont think he would be. But if you go with neuvitch/holty leaving town as well as a forward, the cap would work. Bearly, but it would

@GLITTLE10:

Ah I have been waiting for the Holtby’s young, why trade for Miller with age and cap hit. First, Holtby had his first “starting” role last seaon, a half season. Goaltenders typically need around 100-150 games (2-3 full starting NHL season, IE busts like Pascal LeClaire before you can truly know their potential as mental development is huge for goaltenders. Most goalies don’t peak until around 26-28, which means he still has a lot of progression. With this in mind, let’s now discuss the changes for the Capitals schedule, as compared to in previous years.

Previously, the Caps were in a relatively weaker division-Southeastern. This meant that they played each team within the division (Carolina, Winnipeg, Florida and Tampa) 4-5 times as they played 18 divisional games. Also, the Caps bought out Schultz and let Poti walk in UFA. The Caps will have a much different looking blue line this year, so Holtby is not playing with nearly as sound of one. This means that the Caps lost a lot of experience on the blue line, leaving a young goaltender susceptible and also easy to be given the scape goat role (Media). In addition, the starters for those teams: Carolina-Ward with Ellis (not any more this is for the 12-13 season). Winnipeg- Pavelec and Montoya. Florida-Markstrom, Clemmensen, and Jose Theodore. Tampa- Lindback and Garon. The realignment has now put the Caps against elite level goaltenders more often now. When this has happened in the playoffs, it has shown consistently the Caps get out-goaltended. This could prevent a problem as divisional teams will play 4-5 times, totaling 30 games. I would compare Holtby moving to mirror Carolina’s current goaltending situation. Ward is an elite tender (has underperformed some recently) and Khudobin. Compare Khudobin’s stats to Holtby’s:

Khudobin:
NHL Totals 21 14 5 0 1 2 38 567 .933 2.03 1,121

Holtby:
NHL Totals 57 37 16 0 4 7 127 1,647 .923 2.39 3,186

Holtby only has 23 more starts in regular season than Khudobin. I don’t know how confident that strategy is with a young defensive unit. Thanks for the thoughts though.

@ARTEM791- As stated, I agree with your analysis and too had thought of this for an article. Included below was the rough draft of what I had written but decide to go in a different direction ultimately.

Brooks Liach:

When evaluating the stats that Brooks put up in his 2011-2012 campaign, one will note that they were pretty solid: 41 points (16 goals, 25 assists) in 82 games. Despite this, the concern with Laich is how he is going to return from his groin injury which he had surgery on in April last season. In addition, when looking at his stats over the previous years, there has been a significant decline in his production. Also, his cap hit of $4.5 million is probably significantly more than what his actual value really is. The most concerning facet of Laich, is the fact that in 2008-2010 he appeared to be good for upwards of 50 points/season. However, his declining stats in both 2010-11 and 2011-12 with his past injury history should be concerning. The one problem with potentially moving Brooks, is the fact that he does have a no-movement clause. Brooks has been a great leader for the Caps, however, in his time with some “great” teams, he hasn’t been able to help them into the Finals and his stats have declined, which is why it may be time for the Caps to part ways with him before his value depletes more over the remaining 4 years on his contract.

The stats categories are: Games Played, Goals, Assists, Total Pts and Penalty Minutes.

2008-2009 Washington Capitals NHL 82 23 30 53 31
2009-2010 Washington Capitals NHL 78 25 34 59 34
Canada WC 7 1 0 1 0
2010-2011 Washington Capitals NHL 82 16 32 48 46
2011-2012 Washington Capitals NHL 82 16 25 41 34
2012-2013 Kloten NLA 19 6 12 18 28
Washington Capitals NHL 9 1 3 4 6

Troy Brouwer:

Personally, I would rather see Brouwer stay if it came down between him and Laich. This is because of Brouwer’s experience from the Blackhawks, he has been with a winning team and understands what it takes in the playoffs. He could be a good asset down the road with his experience, and the fact that he is still relatively young at 28. However, Brouwer also has a no-movement clause like Laich. Looking at Brouwer’s statistics show that he is relatively consistent and reliable for around 30 points a season:

2009-2010 Chicago Blackhawks NHL 78 22 18 40 66 | Playoffs 19 4 4 8 8
2010-2011 Chicago Blackhawks NHL 79 17 19 36 38 | Playoffs 7 0 0 0 11
2011-2012 Washington Capitals NHL 82 18 15 33 61 | Playoffs 14 2 2 4 8
2012-2013 Washington Capitals NHL 47 19 14 33 28

Joel Ward:

Ward was a solid acquisition by the Capitals and is versatile in that he can be used easily on the 2nd or 3rd line. Despite having a relatively disappointing season with the Capitals in his first year, he rebounded last season and was on pace for his best statistical year in his NHL career. The benefit of trading him is that he is a $3 million hit on the cap, as well as the fact that he is not getting any younger at 32. In addition, he does not have a movement clause which would allow the Caps to easily move him. Coming off of last season, Wards trade value is probably the highest it will be unless he puts up another strong statistical season, however, again age is going against him.

2008-2009 Nashville Predators NHL 79 17 18 35 29 |
2009-2010 Nashville Predators NHL 71 13 21 34 18 | Playoffs 6 2 2 4 2
2010-2011 Nashville Predators NHL 80 10 19 29 42 | Playoffs 12 7 6 13 6
2011-2012 Washington Capitals NHL 73 6 12 18 20 | Playoffs 14 1 4 5 6
2012-2013 Washington Capitals NHL 39 8 12 20 12 | Playoffs 7 1 3 4 6

FORWARDS
Marcus Johansson ($1.800m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m)
Martin Erat ($4.500m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($3.000m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Brooks Laich ($4.500m) / Eric Fehr ($1.500m)
Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Mathieu Perreault ($1.050m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.575m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($2.800m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
John Erskine ($1.963m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Jack Hillen ($0.700m) / Steven Oleksy ($0.542m)
Tomas Kundratek ($0.550m) /
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby ($1.850m)
Michal Neuvirth ($2.500m)

Again, Oates pts right-handed shots on the right side and vice-versa. I don't know why Caps fans are forgetting this.

WASHINGTON trades: Chimera, Holtby, & Green
to
Buffalo for: Ryan Miller and a 2014 2nd or 3rd round draft-pick. (Maybe a young offensive prospect)

Whoa.


What?

How is Fehr viewed in Washington? I would love to see a trade centered around him and Hemsky.
Thoughts?
- abware

Fehr is loved in Washington, as he had a really good year in the shortened season. I am a Hemsky fan, but I'd rather see Ward or Chimera go up front before Fehr.

Hey Ben, your trade idea is absolute b.s. Are you sure you're not a Sabre's writer? That's the only way your Miller trade makes any sense.

So let me get this straight, Miller for Holtby, Green, and Chimera? Holtby has been splendid during his short tenure with the Caps. The fan base and the team know what they have and they're not letting Holtby go. No one in upper management would even think about trading Holtby for Miller straight up. That right there makes your idea ludicrous. Then, you want to throw in a #1 defenseman who will be one of the 3 Norris trophy finalists after the upcoming season and lead the league in goals by a defenseman?

Hey, I welcomed the other new writer, Charlie, but I really don't need to read anymore of your drivel!

Hey Ben, your trade idea is absolute b.s. Are you sure you're not a Sabre's writer? That's the only way your Miller trade makes any sense.

So let me get this straight, Miller for Holtby, Green, and Chimera? Holtby has been splendid during his short tenure with the Caps. The fan base and the team know what they have and they're not letting Holtby go. No one in upper management would even think about trading Holtby for Miller straight up. That right there makes your idea ludicrous. Then, you want to throw in a #1 defenseman who will be one of the 3 Norris trophy finalists after the upcoming season and lead the league in goals by a defenseman?

Hey, I welcomed the other new writer, Charlie, but I really don't need to read anymore of your drivel!
- thomasp520

You lost me right there... Green is a #1 Defenseman, but
A) your forgetting that karlsson/subban SHOULD outscore him
B) i can think of 10 Defenseman id nominate before Green

You lost me right there... Green is a #1 Defenseman, but
A) your forgetting that karlsson/subban SHOULD outscore him
B) i can think of 10 Defenseman id nominate before Green
- artem791

Okay, maybe I went overboard on Green. His numbers after injury last season were sweet and he got better as the season went on. He is the #1 on the Caps. My belief is that he's going to have a huge year. Take that part out and the proposed trade for Miller is still absurd.